COP28 - down and out?

It’s all been kicking off as we move into the last few days of the climate change conference, currently being held in Dubai. The sticking point at the heart of the debate has been the exclusion of references to the ‘phase-out’ or ‘phase down’ of fossil fuel use in the COP President’s draft deal. The document instead referred to ‘reducing’ fossil fuel production and consumption, ‘in a just, orderly and equitable manner so as to achieve net zero [carbon emissions] by, before, or around 2050’. 

This, unsurprisingly, was met with heat from some. Climate campaigners, island states, and other climate-vulnerable nations, as well as many higher-income countries have so far been united in their demand for stronger language on ending fossil fuel use. The resistance came from countries economically reliant on revenue from oil and gas, and other fossil fuel exploitation, albeit for different reasons. One key factor, highlighted by the African Group of countries is the recognition that different countries will have different approaches to achieving a phase-out: “asking Africa to phase out fossil fuels is like asking us to stop breathing without life support,” Iziaq Kunle Salako, Nigeria’s environment minister, said at a press event. He, and other African ministers have also stressed for greater financial support for climate adaptation. 

Critics, however, have alleged that this change in language is the result of oil-rich nations dominating this year’s conference, and ‘watering down’ the agreement. Indeed, more than 2,400 oil and gas-affiliated lobbyists registered at COP28, four-times that of last year’s COP.  

A deal has, however, now been reached, and mentions neither a ‘phase-out’ nor ‘phase down’ but calls for nations to ‘transition away’ from fossil fuel use. The landmark deal has been hailed as ‘historic’ but is not without its criticisms. Small island nations have complained the text contains a ‘litany of loopholes’; the lack of clarity over how poorer countries will finance such a transition has also come under fire. Anna Rasmussen, chief negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States, told the crowd during the closing plenary, “we have made an incremental advancement over business as usual when what we really needed is an exponential step change in our actions and support”. 

The text has, however, been praised as the first in three decades to explicitly use the terms ‘fossil fuels’; “we are finally naming the elephant in the room” Mohamed Adow, Director of Power Shift Africa said.  

On announcing the deal, the COP President was met with applause, "we have delivered a paradigm shift that has the potential to redefine our economies", adding, though, that "an agreement is only as good as its implementation. We are what we do, not what we say”. Indeed, the agreement is not legally binding but instead ‘calls on’ countries ‘contribute’ to the transition. Whether it will manage to shift the dial on climate action remains unclear, and as always, keeping nations accountable to their commitments will be the challenge.  

It's been a wild ride, but that’s all for this year, thanks for coming along! 

14 December 2023
Catherine Barrett
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